ELSS (Equity Linked Saving Scheme) Risk
assessment
It’s quite a daunting task to select best performing mutual
fund that can provide handsome returns and tax benefits too. One thing I want
to make clear that I am only providing a way to understand the risk
measurements and it does not guarantee that a given scheme will definitely
provide best results or gains. Since these saving schemes are equity or market
related so nothing is guaranteed but it is also a fact that equity linked
scheme has always outperformed the sure shot saving schemes. There is inherent
risk involved but if you can understand and measure those, you will be able to
make informed decision.
So let us understand how to read factsheets of different
mutual fund houses and make informed decisions.
Rsquare: Measures the percentage of an investment's
movement that are attributable to movements in its benchmark index. A mutual
fund should have a balance in R-square and ideally it should not be more than
90 and less than 80
Beta Ratio: where the alpha looks at excess returns over
the index, the beta looks at excess risk over the index. If you have a beta of
1, it is said that you have the same risk as the market. If you have a beta of
0.61, it is said that you have experienced about 61% of the risk of the market.
Alpha Ratio: If
you are trying to see if a mutual fund has beat the performance of it’s
relative index, you should take a look at the alpha ratio. Measures risk
relative to the market or benchmark index. For investors, the more positive an
alpha is, the better it is. The greater is the number, the greater the out
performance.
Sharpe Ratio: An indicator of whether an investment's return
is due to smart investing decisions or a result of excess risk. Higher Sharpe
Ratio is better. The range of Sharpe Ratios for global equity funds went from
as low a -1.11 to a high of 0.94. A positive Sharpe ratio means the fund did
better on a risk adjusted basis. In other words, the higher the Sharpe ratio,
the better. The Sharpe ratio tells you about history but it does not tell you
anything about the future. Just because a fund has a positive Sharpe ratio for
the last 5 years does not mean it will outperform the index for the next 5
years.
Treynor Ratio: Unlike
Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio utilizes "market" risk (beta) instead of
total risk (standard deviation). It is measure of returns earned in excess of
that which could have been earned on a riskless investment.
Expense Ratio: Denotes the annual expenses of the funds,
including the management fee, and administrative cost. Lower expense ratio is
better.
Standard deviation: SD
is applied to the annual rate of return of an investment to measure its
volatility or risk. A volatile stock would have a high standard deviation. With
mutual funds, the standard deviation tells us how much the return on a fund is
deviating from the expected returns based on its historical performance.
Scheme/Time period
|
R Square
|
Beta
|
Alpha
|
Treynor Ratio
|
Sharpe ratio
|
Standard deviation
|
Canara Robeco Equity Taxsaver
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-Year
|
83.61
|
0.83
|
1.85
|
2.36
|
0.19
|
17.01
|
5-year
|
92.56
|
0.92
|
5.60
|
2.29
|
0.21
|
29.10
|
10 –year
|
85.53
|
0.90
|
4.72
|
20.97
|
0.74
|
27.51
|
Religare Tax Plan (Growth)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-Year
|
92.95
|
0.78
|
4.42
|
6.42
|
0.38
|
15.14
|
5-year
|
93.83
|
0.81
|
3.54
|
0.91
|
0.15
|
25.33
|
Reliance Tax Saver Gr
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-Year
|
88.68
|
0.99
|
4.78
|
5.07
|
0.33
|
19.60
|
5-Year
|
93.45
|
0.85
|
4.67
|
1.96
|
0.19
|
26.73
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Category: ELSS Risk
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-Year
|
92.97
|
0.88
|
1.33
|
2.08
|
0.18
|
17.13
|
5-year
|
95.29
|
0.89
|
0.18
|
-3.56
|
0.02
|
27.62
|
10 –year
|
89.17
|
0.91
|
4.03
|
20.30
|
0.73
|
27.12
|
From above figures Religare Tax plan looks less risky but
other two funds have outperformed it with extra risk. Another important factor
is fund size. By fund size we mean total asset value that is managed by fund
manager of respective fund. Canara
Robeco Equity Taxsaver have AUM ( asset under management ) of Rs 506.77 crore,
Religare tax plan has 129.26 cr and Reliance tax saver 2104.51 cr. Sometimes as
size of fund become too large, fund manager find it difficult to invest. Again
what is too large is based on perspective.
Source: Jago Invester,
Moneycontrol, Investopedia, MorningStar
and internet.